(From here)

Statistics Test

The Carlson study is widely viewed by skeptic groups as the test that successfully demonstrated the inability of professional astrologers to correctly match individual birth charts with personality profiles generated by a standard psychological personality test. The three-part study also has been cited as evidence that individuals don’t appear to know themselves all that well, and can’t distinguish between their own and other birth charts (horoscopes) interpreted by professional astrologers.
The controversial study published in the prestigious science journal Nature in 1985 and is referred to today by more than 400 internet pages listed on the Google search engine, which is more than any other research paper of its kind.
Carlson claimed that failed tests involving student volunteers and professional astrologers from the San Francisco Bay Area “produced a strong case against natal astrology as practiced by reputable astrologers.” Professor Ertel reanalyzed data from the study and found this claim to be “untenable.”
Astrologers participating in the high profile study performed much better than may be generally believed, he said.

Test Vehicles Described
In one of the three tests conducted by Carlson, professional astrologers were asked to match the birth charts of student volunteers with personality profiles generated by the California Psychological Inventory (CPI) questionnaire. Birth charts were cast for 116 volunteer students, and each volunteer was asked to complete the lengthy CPI questionnaire.The birth charts of the volunteers were then divided among 28 participating astrologers. For comparison purposes, astrologers were given three CPI personality profiles with every birth chart. One of the profiles was a match for the chart and the other two were two randomly selected profiles matching other volunteers in the pool.
Simply, the idea was to determine if the astrologers would be able to collectively match the charts with the correct CPI profiles in a statistically meaningful way. As part of the assignment, the astrologers were asked to identify which profile was the best, second- and third-best “fit” with the natal chart, and to rank how strongly they felt about their choices on a scale from one to 10.
A similar test was done to see if student test subjects could identify their own CPI personality profiles from a group that included their own and two others. A third test was devised to see if the student volunteers would perform equally well, or badly, when the personality profiles were prepared by professional astrologers.
Effectively, the design for all three tests was the same. But student volunteers were not asked to subjectively rank or indicate how strongly they felt about their choices.
It was Carlson’s conclusion that the astrologers failed to match horoscopes with the correct profiles. He also reported that the student volunteers were unable to identify their own CPI profiles, and fared no better when the written profiles were prepared by professional astrologers.
A failed or chance result would mean that subjects only picked the correct profiles about 33 percent of the time (once in every three tries), which is roughly the result Carlson reported for all three tests.
When the study was completed in 1983 Carlson was a PhD candidate in physics at the University of California with no special training or expertise in psychological testing, Concerns about the methods used and conclusions reached quickly surfaced.
For example, Carlson was criticized for asking the astrologers to do something the CPI specifically warned against: interpreting scores without any prior experience using the test vehicle in the way it was intended to be used by trained professional psychologists.
Because the CPI results in a different profile for men and women, no psychologist would attempt to interpret the CPI without knowing the gender of the test subjects. However, the astrologers later claimed that Carlson deliberately withheld this information from them.
Another concern focused on publication of the research paper in Nature’s Commentary section, the only articles section of the journal that is at the editor’s discretion. Content published here is not subjected to the peer review process.

Fairness Issues Raised
Ertel’s critical assessment of the study raised fairness issues, questioned the sample size, found flaws with the methodology used, and noted the possibility that careless data handling may have tainted the results. Even more damning, he said the researcher’s “piecemeal approach to statistical analysis” contributed to calculation errors.
The tests involving student volunteers were especially suspect. Ertel noted that half of the data ratings were so poor they could not be analyzed, and the half that could be analyzed was not carefully completed. More than one in three students failed to complete their assignments.
The astrologers were more motivated, but Ertel argues that a two-choice format (pair comparison) would have been the more fair way to conduct the tests “because this approach minimizes the complexity of the subject’s task while increasing the precision of results.”
At the time, astrologers protested that the profiles they were asked to compare were very similar. More fairly, in a test like this, astrologers should be asked to compare the profiles of individuals known to have dissimilar personality traits, Ertel believes.
He points out that Carlson initially intended to see if the astrologers could select the correct profile as either their first or second choice at a statistically higher than expected rate but “ignored his own protocol without giving reasons.” Based on his reanalysis of the data, Ertel confirmed that the astrologers were able to select the correct profile as either their first or second choice at a rate significantly better than expected by chance.
With statistical significance, the astrologers also were able to identify which personality profile was the poorest “fit”, a finding that also contradicts Carlson’s original claim. And a statistical reanalysis of the one to 10 numerical ranking system the astrologers were asked to use to subjectively indicate how strongly they felt about their individual choices weighed in their favor as well.

In view of at least two significant test results, Carlson’s claim that we are now in a position to argue a surprisingly strong case against astrology as practiced by reputable astrologers isn’t justified, Ertel insists.

Thanks to: www.astroresearchnewsservice.com

This follows on from the case of Emil Leshtanski, the Bulgarian astrologer who created mass panic last April when he predicted that thousand would die in an earthquake that would level the city of Haskovo over the Orthodox Christian Easter weekend. Hundreds fled to the countryside, sleeping in tents and cars. Police questioned Leshtanski and said they were considering charges of terrorism, spreading false information and public panic. As of the time of writing, Leshtanski has publically apologised and admitted he was wrong; however, prosecutors are still considering charges and he could face up to two years in jail.

The political struggle may aggravate in summer, the Segodnya newspaper is citing the Pavel Globa Center expert Tamara Deinega: “The statesmen will bring up a question of national language. Premier will make a visit to another country, most likely, to the Russian Federation, and escalation of a situation in energy sphere is probable. Beginning from June 22 parliament will be insisting on curtailing a lot of social programs and demanding from Premier unpopular measures to fill the budget. The situation in politics will be very intensive until summer vacation of the Verkhovna Rada begins in the middle of July. There is a high probability of ecocatastrophes beginning from July till August – it may be explosion or flood”.

“The reform in medical sphere is expected to be carried out beginning from August 22 till September 18, most likely, fee-for-service medicine will be introduced. A peak of political crisis and the threat of international scandal involving Ukraine is possible beginning from September 18 till October 18. Dollar rate will be keeping on the level of UAH 7 in summer. The jump in dollar rate is expected to be in October”, Tamara Deinega predicts.

Astrologer Vlad Ross predicts a little slackening: “The crisis may be compared with tsunami – it has 3 waves. The first one is going away, it is only petty annoyances. The second wave is the most destructive one, it is expected to happen beginning from January 2010. The dollar rate will gain ground in May, it will be on the level UAH 7,77 but is expected to fall towards Euro”.

“In general, the summer will be rather favorable period – nothing bad will happen, because Jupiter is on one line with Luna. Luna is Ukraine, Jupiter – a planet of luck and happiness. Everything will be stable on the political scene”. The period from June 28 till July 5 is dangerous – traffic accidents, fires are possible during this time. In the first decade of August technogenic catastrophes on plants are possible”, astrologer Vlad Ross specified.

Russell Grant

Exciting things are happening in the skies in 2009. Pluto has only just begun its long journey that will last until 2023, through Capricorn. What this planet does is destroy old patterns and bring about transformations. Capricorn, an earth sign, has associations with the earth’s resources, the stock exchange and governments.

Pluto’s journey through Capricorn marks the start of what could be a rebirth for the planet. Expect new and dramatic changes over the years ahead as Pluto in Capricorn pushes the world to alter its ways. The time has come for us to speed up our efforts to save the planet and it is Pluto that will help drive this change over the coming years.

Nations throughout the world will start to take eco-solidarity more seriously. The more industrial countries will commit themselves to cutting their energy consumption and there will be a stronger shift to renewable energy sources.

Between May and August 2009 there will be a rare conjunction between Jupiter, Chiron and Neptune in Aquarius. Jupiter, planet of expansion, is restrained by Chiron, the healer as more attention is drawn to the high impact on climate change that food waste has and what can be done about it.

Read the whole article at Green Shopping Blog here.

Wife Swap logo

PRESS RELEASE – PRESS RELEASE – ENTERTAINMENT -
ON ABC’S WIFE SWAP (4/24)
A COWBOY FAMILY WHO BELIEVE MEN SHOULD RIDE THE PLAINS WHILE WOMEN STAY HOME SWAP LIVES WITH A VEGAN FAMILY OF ASTROLOGERS WHO TALK TO PLANTS, ON ABC’S “WIFE SWAP”
“Brazenwood/Taylor” – A meat-loving cowboy family with traditional values swap lives with a free-spirited vegan family who consult the stars, on “Wife Swap,” FRIDAY, APRIL 24 (8:00-9:00 p.m., ET) on the ABC Television Network. Each week two very contradictory families from across the country participate in a two-week-long challenge: The wives exchange husbands, children and lives (but not bedrooms) to discover daily life in another woman’s shoes. This astonishing experiment repeatedly changes lives and redefines families.
The Taylor family from Texas own a cattle ranch and live for the good old fashioned American rodeo! World Champion Team Roper Dad Calvin (33), and his wife, Heather (34), have four children, Claire (12), Caroline (9), Cameron (6) and Calvin Jr. (4), who are tough rodeo competitors themselves in barrel racing and roping. The Taylors are raising their kids to be hardworking winners. Calvin strives to lead by example and spends most of his time outside with the animals, while Heather prefers to stay at home, “barefoot and pregnant.” Calvin expects hot dinners of meat and potatoes but refuses to do any housework. To ensure Calvin Jr. follows in his footsteps, his father takes him out for meals alone, leaving all the Taylor women behind. Even if it upsets his daughters, the girls aren’t allowed to show any emotion because the Taylors believe crying makes you weak. They believe their traditional values are creating well-grounded, practical children, which is important to the cowboy way of life.
Meanwhile, the new-age Brazenwood family from North Carolina live in a world of their own, literally. Astrologist Dad Kelly (37) wrote a fantasy novel about a fictional world named “Thandoria” starring a boy named Arian Brazenwood, which is the name he later gave to his real-life son here on planet Earth. Adrian’s step mom, Christina (28), is an energy healer who lets her astrological chart dictate her days because she believes it puts her in touch with the meaning of life. She enjoys spending time outside talking to her friends the plants, and isn’t afraid to rub dirt all over her body or even have a taste of it while communing with nature. When she’s not one with nature, she dons funky costumes and teaches a dance class called “soul shaking.” Back at home, Kelly wears a towel wrapped around his waist instead of pants and loves to run around and to pretend sword fight or play in fantasy worlds with Arian (13). When it comes to domestic duties, they all chip in, and they prefer a vegan diet. To help unify the family, they chant “om” before every meal, which is the sound of the universe being created.
In the first week, Heather leaves behind the rodeo for the world of fantasy. Kelly begins by giving her an astrological reading, but pragmatic Heather claims she doesn’t believe in all the “fluff.” Though she tries to talk to plants like Christina, she finds it difficult to have a true conversation. With so much focus on astrology and the world of make believe, Heather worries the family doesn’t know the difference between work and play. Meanwhile, in Texas, Christina Brazenwood notices the plants on the ranch are far less inviting than the friendly foliage back at home. Like the plants, she thinks the family has difficulty expressing emotion and is saddened that Calvin chooses to spend time with his only son and leave his daughters behind. After spending time with the Taylor girls, Christina confronts Calvin about his lack of emotion and chauvinistic attitude, but Calvin maintains he’s happy living life by his cowboy code.
In the second week of the swap, when the wives change the rules and turn the tables, Heather rules that Kelly has to trade in his skirt and star-gazing for spurs and become a real cowboy. For Heather, that means eating like one too… after 17 years of abstaining from meat, Kelly has to chow down on chicken fried steak and cheeseburgers. Although Kelly tries to man up and follow her rules, he eventually melts down and tosses his burger off the balcony, leading Heather to believe he’ll never grow up. Meanwhile in Texas, kooky Christina bans rodeo, ranching and riding in favor of poetry, writing and painting. However, before she can even finish reading her rules, Calvin stages a walkout and takes his kids for a meat dinner. After the explosive rule change, Calvin takes the whole family to live in a trailer. Christina decides to persevere anyway and tries to introduce the family to interpretive dancing, but Calvin continues to shut her out, claiming, “real men don’t dance!” After two weeks in another home, can Heather Taylor bring the eccentric Brazenwoods one step closer to reality? And can Christina Brazenwood help the no-nonsense Taylors get in touch with their emotional sides?”

In other words:
LAUGH at the hilarious astrologists, as they dance, chant and talk to their plants!
JEER at the rootin’ tootin’ Texas cowboys as they chew their raw beef!
GASP at the sight of a man wearing a skirt!
APPLAUD a real old-fashioned man who makes the womenfolk stay at home!
YES! Forget about watching real human beings explain their lifestyles and beliefs! Be entertained instead! Switch on in your millions to see all your favourite stereotypes CONFIRMED!

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Meanwhile, US astrologer Jacqueline Bigar has been taking a look at a possible birth chart for Twitter, with some interesting conclusions.